JOHANNESBURG
On 8th Septembe Major-General Fourie addressed the Society on the subject "Revolutionary Warfare''. After a brief review of the recent revolutionary wars, in particular, the revolutionary victories in French Indochina and Vietnam, and the revolutionary defeats in Malaya and Greece, General Fourie went on to stress that South Africa's survival depends upon an understanding of the current threat.
In order to be successful it is imperative for a revolutionary movemont to have sound organisation, a cause, external logistical support, active support of the local population and hope in the ultimate success of the movement. The four phases of a revolutionary war are:
According to John McCuen, the prominent author on counter revolutionary warfare, a successful counter revolutionary strategy must be based on revolutionary strategy. It must be established which phase the of the revolutionary war is in progress. Once established revolutionary progress must then be halted at all costs. The revolution must thon be rolled back by evolving a suitable counter strategy.
Three case histories were then analysed, namely, Rhodesia, South West Africa and South Africa.
Some of the main lessons of the Rhodesian War are to be found in the lack of a political aim and longterm programme. Furthermore, there was no coordinated strategy as evidenced by conflict between the military and the politicians, discord with South Africa and a naive reliance on Britain. A major weakness was the fact that intelligence on subversive activities was very poor. There was no protection for or involvement of the masses - the tribal trust lands (TTLs) were left largely to their own devices. With the advent of the Musorewa era the revolutionary cause was removed and the new Security Force Auxiliaries deployed in the villages of the TTLs presented a major threat to the previously largely unhindered movement of the revolutionary forces. However, prior to the election held after the Lancaster House Conference there was a total underestimation of the psychological effects of the war. The country was war weary and in effect a subtle form of intimidation resulted. If Mugabe was not elected the war would continue. A vote for Mugabe therefore became a vote for peace.
Important strategic aspects of the South West African conflict include the problem of obtaining a fine balance between external operations and the internal strategy. The real problem lies in Ovambo and not in Angola. The problem is exacerbated by the internationalisation of the conflict and the discord amongst the internal parties. The ongoing conflict is also proving a drain on South Africa's resources and the psychological effects need to be considered (S.A.'s Vietnam).
A successful counter revolutionary strategy in South Africa depends on clear political aims and a long term programme, a good balance between security and welfare measures, economic growth and good government. Important security aspects are a good understanding of the revolutionary threat, a strong deterrant capability against outside threats, protection of the population against revolutionary intimidation, good border and movement control capabilities, the maintenance of law and order, an effective intelligence system and the necessary reserves to handle crisis situations.
Major-General Phil Pretorius, the recently appointed Director of the S.A. National Museum of Military History, thanked the Speaker for his very illuminating lecture.
The Meeting opened with the return of M.G.H., (Metro Goldwyn Hall to the uninitiated). The subject this month was the Greek siege of Troy. A highlight of the show was the use of slides illustrating the present day appearance of places mentioned in Homer's story.
Harrismith Tour 29/30 October 1988
Accommodation has been organised at the Grand National Hotel. Members should book into and meet at the hotel at 11h30 on Saturday 29th October. Please note that each individual should settle his own account (R36 DBB).
Future Meetings
Johannesburg - October 13th - Mr. Fransjohan Pretorius "The Role and Position of Blacks, Coloureds and Indians in the South African War of 1899/1902".
- November 10th - Lieutenant-Colonel T.C.D. Leaver (assisted by Mr. M.J. Nordmann) - "Alan Wilson's Last Stand".
The Johannesburg Meetings take place in the J.C. Lemmer Auditorium, S.A. National Museum of Military History, Saxonwold, Johannesburg at 20h00.
Durban
- October 13th - Mr. Ian Sutherland -"The Escape of H.M.S. Amethyst (Yangtse River, China)."
Cape Town
- October 13th - Norman du Toit - "Charles Warren - Soldier and Archeologist."
STEWART STILES
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